Mike Garcia was sworn into office as a Member of the U.S. House of Representatives on May 19, 2020. Photo from his campaign website.
A special election, which refers to elections to fill a vacant position in situations where an officeholder passes away, resigns, or is impeached, was held for California’s 25th Congressional district on May 12, 2020, to fill the seat vacated by Representative Katie Hill. Representative Hill flipped the twenty-eight year, Republican-controlled district in 2018, but resigned last year due to a personal scandal. Christy Smith, a Democratic member of the State Assembly, and Mike Garcia, a former military pilot and newcomer to Republican electoral politics, led the tickets of their respective parties. Smith eventually conceded the race, and the win marks the first time Republicans have flipped a seat in California since 1998.
Special elections place more of a premium on candidate quality and local factors than do regularly held elections— and the stand-alone nature of the special election helped Garcia localize the race and defy President Trump’s unpopularity in the area. According to the Cook Political Analysis, Garcia’s electoral victory is tied to those local turnout dynamics. The “surge” turnout that propelled Democrats in 2016, with 274,000 votes cast, and 2018, with 245,000 votes cast, was nowhere to be found this election, to the Republicans’ benefit.
Another difference, in 2018, suburban, moderate Republicans and independents, disapproving of Trump, only had one option to send a message: vote for a Democrat-controlled House as a check on the president, but that was not the case this time around. In this special election, voters who may have liked Garcia, but not Trump, didn’t have to choose between Garcia or a Democratic House: they could have both. Since it was not a Presidential election, voters could separate their feelings for Trump with their feelings for then-candidate Garcia.
Garcia does not have much time to enjoy his victory as he will once again be competing with Christy Smith, this time for a full two-year term, this November. The two aforementioned factors— the low turnout and the localization of the special election, are unlikely to repeat in November. The presidential race is certain to drive out a much larger, more diverse electorate, and Democrats will have the opportunity to tie Garcia to Trump, especially considering the President’s relentless support for Representative Garcia.
According to the most recent Census data, there are approximately 10,885 Korean Americans residing in this district with over 7200 among them being eligible voters. The district covers most of northern Los Angeles County, which has approximately 148,445 Korean American eligible voters, many of whom reside in Santa Clarita and the northern San Fernando Valley area.
Currently, there are 4,012 Korean American registered voters, which may only represent 1% of total registered voters, however,1% is still significant. This district has historically been a solid Republican stronghold, but it has recently become more competitive, the candidate from either party could win. It could become a very close battle in November 2020 with the uncertainty of California’s November election primarily being conducted via mail adding to the mix.
Please refer below for the Cook Political Analysis and KAGC voter data.