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President

Image from WUSA

The Associated Press and major media outlets have declared former Vice President Joe Biden as the winner of the 2020 presidential election, but the official result will not be confirmed for another few weeks. As of November 16th, 2020 Biden has won 290 electoral votes, and President Trump 232, according to AP and Fox News. Other media outlets such as ABC, CBS, CNN, NBC, POLITICO and the New York Times reported a larger number, 306 for Biden. A presidential candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the race.

Among the battleground states, where the election resulted in a narrow margin between Biden and Trump, Arizona (11 electoral votes), Michigan (16), Pennsylvania (20), and Wisconsin (10) have gone from Republican 4 years ago to Democrat this year—or “flipped” from red to blue.

In North Carolina, another battleground state, Trump won by 1.3%p after an extended period of ballot counting. In Georgia, where Biden is currently leading by 0.3%p, the margin is too narrow to definitively call yet.

President Trump has not conceded, and his campaign has filed several lawsuits in the battleground states. On November 7th, the campaign sought to block the canvassing of all ballots cast in person on Election Day in Maricopa County, the most populous county in Arizona that includes Phoenix. Trump camp withdrew on November 13th. In Michigan, two cases were filed—one in Michigan’s state court and another in a federal court—to slow down the certification in Wayne County, which includes Detroit, a heavily Democrat city. The state court case was denied on November 13th. The federal lawsuit there asks the court to essentially force a do-over of the absentee vote count in the state and block the election result certification.

Similarly, the Trump campaign’s legal challenge in Pennsylvania seeks to block the state from certifying the election results: more specifically, by protesting the ballots cast by those who got to fix mail-in ballots that would have otherwise been disqualified for technicality. One part of the suit, which called for the decertification of 682,749 ballots allegedly counted in the absence of Trump campaign representatives, was withdrawn as of November 15th, however. On November 17th, Pennsylvania Supreme Court rejected the Trump campaign’s lawsuit over election observers in Pennsylvania. 

In Georgia, where the margins between Biden and Trump are narrower, the Trump campaign has called for a recount. On November 4th, a lawsuit was filed in the Superior Court of Chatham County, a population center that includes Savannah, GA, to ask all late-arriving mail-in ballots to be kept track of but not counted. While Georgia’s state law does not require an automatic recount of votes, any candidate may request a recount if the difference between the number of votes is no more than 1%. Currently, Biden leads by about 14,000 votes in the state or 0.3%p. Given the unprecedented level of controversy, Georgia’s Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger announced on November 11th a full, by-hand recount of ballots cast in the presidential election in every county in the state. The deadline for counties to recount is 11:59 pm on November 18th. 

In Wisconsin, the Trump campaign filed its petition for a recount in Milwaukee and Dane counties on November 18th. Under state law, a recount is automatically conducted at state expense when the margin separating two candidates is less than 0.25 percent. However, a candidate is allowed to request a recount any time the margin is less than 1 percent, provided the campaign agrees to pay. At this point, the Trump campaign must wait until local county boards of canvassers complete their canvassing process until requesting a recount. Once the Wisconsin Elections Commission (WEC) has received notice that the last county has completed its canvass, which is due no later than November 17th, the Trump campaign will have until 5 pm on the next business day to file a recount petition and in this case, the filing fee in the amount of money the WEC anticipates the recount costing.

The process to start a recount in other battleground states is similarly limited. In Arizona, a recount may only be conducted by court order. According to the law, a recount is mandated when the difference between the candidates is 0.1% or 200 votes, whichever number is smaller. The margin between Trump and Biden currently is over 10,000.

In Michigan, a candidate who believes that the canvass of the votes cast in the office is incorrect because of fraud or error in the precinct returns may petition for a recount of the votes cast in the precincts involved. A recount of all precincts in the state is automatically conducted if the difference between the number of votes received by the candidates is 2,000 votes or less. There are more than 140,000 votes separating Biden from Trump in Michigan at this point.

Timeline to Inauguration

States are still counting and certifying the results of the popular vote. When the count is completed, each governor is required by law to prepare “as soon as practicable” documents known as “Certificates of Ascertainment” of the vote. The certificates list the Electors’ names and the number of votes cast for the presidential candidates in the state. The certificates, carrying the seal of each state, are sent to the Archivist of the United States.

December 8th is the deadline for resolving election disputes on the state level, including recounts and court contests. On December 14th, Electors report to a designated place to vote by paper ballot in their respective states and the District of Columbia. Thirty-three states and D.C. have laws or party regulations requiring their Electors to vote the same way as the popular vote. In some states, rogue electors may be replaced or subjected to penalties.

The votes for president and vice president are counted, and the Electors sign six “Certificates of the Vote,” which are then sent by registered mail to various officials, including the president of the U.S. Senate, a position reserved for the Vice President of the United States. The certificates must be delivered to the designated officials by December 23rd. If they are not delivered, the law provides alternative avenues for getting the results to Washington.

On January 6th, three days after a new Congress convenes, the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate hold a joint session to count the electoral votes. If one ticket has received 270 or more electoral votes, the president of the Senate announces the results.

Members of Congress may object to returns from any state as they are announced. Objections must be made in writing by at least one member of the House and one in the Senate. If the objection meets certain requirements, each chamber meets separately to debate the objection for a maximum of two hours. Afterward, each chamber votes to accept or reject the objection. Back in joint session, the results of the respective votes are announced. Any objection to a state’s electoral vote has to be approved by both chambers in order for any contested votes to be excluded.

If neither presidential candidate accrues at least 270 electoral votes, the House would decide the election, based on the 12th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. If required, the House would elect the president, and the Senate the vice president. Each state delegation has one vote, and thus it takes 26 votes to win.

Inauguration takes place on January 20th.

U.S. Senate

Image from WUSA

As of November 17th, the Democratic Party is projected to win 48 seats and the Republicans 50 in the U.S. Senate. Up for election this year were 35 seats, and the Republicans held a three-seat advantage entering Election Day. In order for the Democrats to take control of the chamber in 2021, they would need to flip at least three seats—and most likely four—assuming they also win the White House.

In this year’s election, Democrats flipped seats in Arizona and Colorado, while GOP flipped one in Alabama. With all other seats unchanged, the Democrats saw a net gain of one seat. With two races, both in Georgia, headed to a runoff election on January 5th, the fate of the chamber is yet undetermined.

A runoff election, essentially a rematch, takes place when none of the candidates meet the criteria for winning—in the case of Georgia, a candidate must receive the majority of the votes, or 50% of all votes plus one, in order to win in the general election. Otherwise, the top two-vote-getters then face off again in a runoff election.

If the Democrat candidates win both Senate races in Georgia, the Democrats will take the majority in the chamber with 50 members in each party and Vice President-elect holding the tie-breaking vote. If Republicans win even one of the two races, they will maintain control of the Senate.

U.S. House

Image from WUSA as of November 17th 

All 435 seats were up for election in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2020. According to the New York Times, as of November 18th, the Democrats won 219 seats, and GOP 204; the remaining 12 seats are yet to be called. While the Democrats will keep their control in the chamber—as 218 is the minimum number of seats required for a majority—House Republicans have narrowed their disadvantage by flipping at least ten seats without losing any. The House Democrats saw a net loss of seven seats at this point.

House Districts that flipped to Democrat 

• GA-7
• NC-2
• NC-6

House Districts that flipped to Republican

• CA-48
• FL-26
• FL-27
• IA-1
• MI-3
• MN-7
• NM-2
• OK-5
• SC-1
• UT-4

Notably, one Korean American member was re-elected, and three candidates were newly elected this year. Rep. Andy Kim (D, NJ-3) was re-elected for his second term. Marilyn Strickland (D, WA-10), Michelle Eunjoo Park Steel (R, CA-48), and Young O. Kim (R, CA-39) were elected as the first Korean American women ever to be elected to Congress.